Is this the right medicine for the City?

Today the Bank of England (BoE) has unveiled its plans of a £50 billion lending boost. While I suspect that most bankers and traders alike will welcome this move, I’m mindful to point out that such governmental financial manoeuvrings is not without disquietude.

In broad strokes, the plan is that banks will be able to swap potentially risky mortgage debts for £50 billion of secured government bonds, thus allowing them to operate with some semblance of liquidity in the banking system.

Early indications are that the banks broadly welcome this move by the BoE; hitherto both the BoE and HM Exchequer seemed either unwilling or incompetent in the face of the current credit crunch. On a point of information, I’m intentionally refraining from referring to this as the “US” credit crunch, as I believe this to be an unhelpful misnomer.

The insatiable appetite of British banks for consuming exotic derivatives and more importantly, not correctly understating these financial instruments, is as much a causative factor in producing the current credit crisis as our American cousins.

My worry about this current action is the sense of timing. Are we now collectively paying the price of failure in the Exchequers deficiency in providing leadership at “first light” of the credit problems?

Just about every Central Banker in the world realized sometime ago the exigency of the moment, while the Bank of England lacking leadership from the Prime Minister and the Exchequer, seemed more intent on riding their moral high horse (moral hazard). The refusal of the Mervyn King to pump much needed liquidity into the markets as early as last August was an incongruous decision.

While it is true that financial ignobility should not be rewarded with the taxpayer cash, the balance of the public interest and private interest in this instance are deeply coupled. What the BoE should not do, is allow these banks to persist in this reckless mortgage lending.

Let’s be clear here, most of these banks pocketed large amounts of cash profits from partaking in subprime related financial instruments. As a fully signed up capitalist, I defend their right to make such money; however it must be made abundantly clear that the losses are theirs too, not the taxpayer!

If it is one thing that this current crisis should teach us, it has to be this – unrestrained cheap credit is “expensive!” Our collective predilection for credit has been a contributory factor for the current turmoil.

I know Liberal Democrats and hard left Labour members would like too woo us with their unabashed liberal narrative of the credit crunch as some capitalist conspiracy, but this can be safely ignored.

New Labour has a well document penchant of legislation, and I fear this will act as a cue for satisfying this urge. We should not rush into legislation for legislations sake. Calmness combined with vigilance is the more sensible route.

On reflection I would have to conclude while the action is late, I broadly welcome the move. I hasten to point out that the fallout from this credit crisis is far from over. For one thing Fannie Mae (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=fnm) and Freddie Mac (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=fre ) combine to make up the trillion dollar ticking time bomb. For my money, as long as these two institutions remain in credit limbo, the crisis is well and truly unfinished business. Let’s just say the “patient” is still critical.

New Labour & the FSA Experiment - Res ipsa loquitur

The cacophony of background noise is a trademark of the political theatre a.k.a. - Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQ’s). But occasionally, one can make what I could only describe as rather telling observations.

David Cameron decided to use his “bag of six” – questions that is, to bludgeon the Prime Minster on the Financial Services Authority (FSA) inept handing of the Northern Rock crisis. Unfortunately for him, his observations on ineptitude were partially reciprocated, as he returned the favour; making a poor case for a valid argument.

The fact is we really need not look very far to see an excellent example of effective regulation in action – cue The Federal Reserve Board. Just take a look at how deftly the Fed dealt with the near collapse of Bear Stearns, and contrast this with the slipshod action or “inaction”, of the FSA in conjunction with BoE in dealing with a similar situation – the collapse of Northern Rock. Even as the dust is still settling, it is clear that the American approach of quasi-public regulation is far more superior. More importantly, the Fed as a unitary authority is an approach that while not perfect, has the benefit of pooling resources, and presenting itself to the banking industry as a sole place of reference.

While I am not quite ready to hitch my cart to the Tory economic engine, I most certainly support the Tories premise to hammer home the point that all this talk about New Labours economic prowess is just that – talk! Furthermore; the decision to split responsibilities of banking supervision and regulation between that of the Bank of England and the FSA have proven to be categorically short-sighted and economically sophomoric.

Yes, we all know the ability of Gordon Brown to verbally vomit statistics at will is amazing, if not of a mild autistic savant. However; The Tory party can rightfully argue that the decision to separate the powers of regulatory supervision between the FSA and the BoE was one of poor judgment.

I further opine that in light of FSA admitting in their own style that they are simply not up to the job, that the regulation of addressing:

• Banking panics;
• Striking a balance between private interests of banks and the centralized responsibility of the government;
• supervising and regulating banking institutions;
• maintain the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk in financial markets;
• to be responsive to local liquidity needs
  

Be solely the domain of a quasi-public Bank of England. As a trader myself I have a keen interest in a stable and efficient market place. If the regulator of first instance can’t be trusted, relied upon or worst – proves incompetent, it affects us all. For all the talk from new Labour on prudence and stability, it’s only when things fail, that we get the accurate picture.

Res ipsa loquitur – it speaks for itself! The idea that the status quo of relying on the FSA to effectively deal with systemic risk and regulation in the banking sector, is clearly no longer a sustainable proposition. I fear however, that New Labours response to today’s report from the FSA will be genetically in the style of New Labour – more regulation! It really is the case that "less is more!"

More regulation in the area of banking would be the wrong response. What is needed here is calm insightful fortitude in dealing with issues in banking, against the current backdrop of “tight” credit markets. I know it would be the breaking of a lifetime habit for New Labour to instead look to the private sector for the experience necessary in dealing with and examining the types of risk that banks take.

The ability of the regulator to understand such operational banking risk, goes some way to pre-empting such catastrophic failures such as Northern Rock. The Bank of England is in the best position to understand this, it would be folly indeed to not re-examine this remit, and learn a few lesson from our cousins on the other side of the Atlantic – The Fed!